I'm in a state of shock and awe. I had a good feeling about Barack Obama almost from the first time I heard of him (which was about a couple of months before he was elected). Now that he's started to make his mark, I have to say I'm somewhat envious. Why? Because I wish we had someone like him in charge of my country too.
Firstly, he announced the closing of Guantànamo bay. As well as being the right thing to do, it seems to me that Barack Obama really has the interests of the American people at heart. It's a fact that the holding of foreign prisoners, without trial and over long periods of time, is one of the prime reasons the USA as a nation has become hated over the course of the Bush administration in many quarters. Guantànamo bay has come to symbolise this injustice in the eyes of many, and while things are never as simple as they are portrayed to be in the media, this single act will probably do more than any other to bring the USA fully back into the international fold. For sure, there will be complications along the way and it will take time to resolve, but he has shown very clearly by this act what his priorities are. Despite whatever difficulties he faces along the way this single act speaks volumes which will be heard around the world, not only in the 'west' but also around the middle-east and Asia where the reputation of the USA has been severely compromised in recent years.
Secondly, he has announced an intention to make the USA energy independent. I have privately argued for some years that the USA's biggest problem stems from its dependence on foreign nations for energy, primarily oil. It is this which motivates a lot of intervention in the affairs of other nations, as it seeks to defend the sources of oil. It is for this reason that countries like Venezuela have been a thorn in the side of the USA in recent years. However, a successfully implemented set of policies to reduce or even totally remove the dependence of the USA on energy from foreign nations will not only increase its level of autonomy but is likely to have immense benefits for the environment at the same time. Barack Obama is starting to unwind the foolhardy policies of the Bush administration and replace them with something much more forward-thinking. Allowing individual states to set stricter car emissions standards? Good for the environment, good for the motor industry, good for the US economy as a whole. Accelerating the implementation of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency of buildings? Good for the environment, a good way of creating jobs, good for the US economy as a whole.
Now of course, I realise that it is early days, and only time will tell whether he is successful at implementing the things he has outlined in his first few days of office. But this is a very good start at least, and I wish him all the best at achieving the aims he has outlined.
If you had asked me even just 2 months ago whether the USA stood a chance of transforming itself from the environmental pariah of the world into an example for other nations to follow, I would never have believed it. I think I can say with all honesty that this is something I not only hope for but can realistically see coming about over the coming years. It won't happen over night, and probably can't be achieved within 8 years even if Barack Obama stays in power for this long, but he can at least steer the ship on a new course. Let's just hope it comes about. Congratulations to the American people for making the right choice in this election.
27 January 2009
26 December 2008
Christmas Review and 2009 predictions
Well, it's been a long time since I blogged, and I have completely failed to deliver part II of my previous entry. Things have gone a bit quiet on that front, so for now I will stick my head in the sand and hope that none of you notice the omission. (Reality is probably that none of you really care, but I'd rather avoid believing that for as long as possible!)
Anyway, I'd like to look back at the technology predictions I made this time last year, to see how well I did, and make some similar predictions for 2009. So without further waffle, here goes.
Last year's predictions
1. LED lighting will become mainstream.
Hmmmm. It's true that further development has happened in the market for LED lighting solutions. You can buy a wider range of products than this time last year, and prices do seem to have been driven down somewhat. There are even some new applications I didn't expect, for example some new models of car now have LED 'daylight running lights', e.g. Audi. Having said that. progress has not been as much as I had predicted or hoped for. In short, LED lamps are still not really competitive with compact fluorescent lamps for general lighting applications. The increase in electricity prices won't really have much effect here as long as LEDs don't exceed the performance of their long-established competitor. The fact is, while CFLs have overcome criticisms about poor colour rendering, whereas LEDs haven't. Even the development of 'warm white' LEDs doesn't convince some people. This will limit them to certain applications where colour rendering isn't important, e.g. outside lighting, fridge lights or interior lighting for cars. I suspect 2009 will bring further improvements and decreases in price, but probably not a revolution in lighting. So I'll give myself 5/10 for this prediction.
2. Flash-based hard drives will become mainstream
Well, I think the rapid expansion of ultra-mobile PCs such as the Asus EEE, the MSI wind and the Acer Aspire One (which I am now the proud owner of one) have really shown this to be a good prediction. OK, I bought an Acer Aspire One with a rotating hard disk as I anticipated wanting a lot of storage, but I think it's fair to say that flash drives are mainstream as one of the options for such devices. I don't see much evidence of them taking hold in the server market, but the UMPC market has been a resounding success and I reckon will spur further developments in 2009. I'll give myself 9/10 for this prediction.
3. Many more computer devices will come with GNU/Linux pre-installed
Well I think this was also a good prediction, largely for the same reason as prediction number 2. It's also clear that Microsoft see this as a real threat, and seem to have been fighting hard to prevent Linux completely taking over this market sector. They have just announced another life extension to Windows XP, as Vista is totally incapable of running on these devices as it's such a resource hog. That to me is a sign that they see and understand the threat. I'll give myself an 8/10 for this one. There have been moves in the desktop sector as well, but perhaps not as much as I would have thought.
4. Internet video will become usable
Bingo! The BBC have just rolled out a beta version of a new iPlayer which is cross-platform and allows for downloads. I have tried this out on my home PC which runs Ubuntu 8.10 and it really does just do what I expect. I did a comparison of the quality and it seemed to be a lot better than the streaming service, even with that set on high quality. It's worth pointing out that there was no high quality streaming service this time last year, so even this is new. Youtube.com have also made a high quality service available, although I haven't actually seen any content using it yet. The only area that is still lacking is video-conferencing, using services such as skype or the instant messaging-based services. This will always be limited by the uplink connections speeds provided by ISPs that are currently available. There are some services available with higher uplink speeds (including interestingly the mobile broadband offerings based on the 3G HSPA technologies) but I don't expect services to take advantage of this until there is significant uptake of connections capable of providing these speeds. I'll give myself 9/10 for this prediction.
5. Many people will become concerned about Google's near monopoly on information retrieval and search.
An interesting comment I heard was that Google have now got a near monopoly on information retrieval and search, yet for some odd reason most people aren't concerned about this. I think there's some truth in this. The fact remains that Google tries very hard to avoid alienating its customers as it knows full well it doesn't want to stir up such worries. When there was an outcry over the original terms of use for it's new Chrome web browser, it backed down and addressed the concerns by publishing updated terms. Outcry successfully stamped out. I suspect it will continue with this approach and do everything to avoid being seen as the new Microsoft. Perhaps I can only give myself 3/10 for this one, as although Google's plans to take over the internet have advanced significantly, my prediction was mainly about people becoming concerned about it.
So what for 2009? Here are my predicitions.
1. There will be a second generation of UMPCs, based around ARM processors for extreme low power. Many of them will run GNU/Linux.
The UMPC concept is a good one and has worked well. There are also many smart phones which offer internet connectivity via HSPA and wifi. The next generation will have the form-factor of the current UMPCs but will be internally more like the smart phone and not at all like a PC. They will be 'always on' like a phone, when you shut the lid it will only turn off the display and go into a low power mode (rather than hibernating where a PC can't really respond to external events). They will have UMTS modems and therefore be like a phone; they will behave like a normal mobile phone by connecting to a Bluetooth headset. Battery life will be upwards of 24 hours (at least if on standby). You will carry it in your handbag/rucksack/coat pocket and the Bluetooth headset will be what you keep on your person at all times instead of a traditional mobile phone. As a result, Bluetooth headsets will gain new features such as a display for caller ID, basic menus and eventually the ability to type instant messages/emails (the latter won't happen in 2009 though).
2. Hybrid cars will take off in the market.
This is based on a number of things - firstly the spike in energy prices in 2008 has raised the issue of cost in people's minds, so they are looking for efficiency improvements. Secondly, Formula 1 motor racing have new rules which include KERS devices - which stands for Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems. Thirdly - motor manufacturers are struggling because of the recession. While the motor industry are just one of a number of industries queueing up to be bailed out by public finances, I don't believe they are a worthy recipient of this - unless, that is, such a bailout is conditional on them investing the funds of such a bailout in technology fit for the 21st century. Smart governments will insist on this. It's unclear whether Barak Obama will do this in the USA, nor whether European and Asian governments will. However there are a number of technologies available which could facilitate this. Batteries have their drawbacks, but other technologies capable of storing much smaller amounts of energy can contribute almost as much to efficiency savings without many of the drawbacks. Expect to see the developments in Formula 1 spilling over into the mass market. Maybe 2009 is a bit premature for this, but the technology would be ideal for roll-out in specific applications such as buses, trains, and even small city cars. Current electric cars such as the G-Wizz have limited appeal and some drawbacks, but the inclusion of a small internal combustion engine overcomes most of these. Whilst it would be good to see the internal combustion engine go the way of the dodo in cars, the alternative technologies need to gain critical mass first and a number of hybrid technologies will enable this.
3. 2009 will see many more 'household names' going bust because of the recession.
OK, this isn't exactly a spectacular prediction given the current economic climate. But I expect we'll be in for a lot of surprises. Who knows, it may even be whole nations - the USA? UK? If confidence in the US dollar falls and all those people around the world who have lent money to the US by buying dollars decide to pull out, there could be a spectacular fall in the dollar. This would have massive ramifications around the world, and could even trigger my fourth prediction:
4. The UK will be forced to abolish the pound and will join the Euro
This is perhaps a bit more far fetched, but not totally inconceivable. It would only take a scandal on a large scale to hit the UK, its companies or its institutions and confidence could fall out of the pound totally. The recent Bernard Madoff scandal has had big effects but the US economy is big enough to be able to cope. A similar scandal in the UK, especially one which exposed weaknesses in the regulatory environment of the UK, could cause the UK economy to spiral downwards, taking the pound with it, and forcing us to adopt the euro. Personally, I reckon we'd be better to pre-empt this by adopting the euro at a time of our choosing on terms more favourable to ourselves, but that's another story.
5. Can't think of a fifth right now, but will update if/when I do.
Anyway, I'd like to look back at the technology predictions I made this time last year, to see how well I did, and make some similar predictions for 2009. So without further waffle, here goes.
Last year's predictions
1. LED lighting will become mainstream.
Hmmmm. It's true that further development has happened in the market for LED lighting solutions. You can buy a wider range of products than this time last year, and prices do seem to have been driven down somewhat. There are even some new applications I didn't expect, for example some new models of car now have LED 'daylight running lights', e.g. Audi. Having said that. progress has not been as much as I had predicted or hoped for. In short, LED lamps are still not really competitive with compact fluorescent lamps for general lighting applications. The increase in electricity prices won't really have much effect here as long as LEDs don't exceed the performance of their long-established competitor. The fact is, while CFLs have overcome criticisms about poor colour rendering, whereas LEDs haven't. Even the development of 'warm white' LEDs doesn't convince some people. This will limit them to certain applications where colour rendering isn't important, e.g. outside lighting, fridge lights or interior lighting for cars. I suspect 2009 will bring further improvements and decreases in price, but probably not a revolution in lighting. So I'll give myself 5/10 for this prediction.
2. Flash-based hard drives will become mainstream
Well, I think the rapid expansion of ultra-mobile PCs such as the Asus EEE, the MSI wind and the Acer Aspire One (which I am now the proud owner of one) have really shown this to be a good prediction. OK, I bought an Acer Aspire One with a rotating hard disk as I anticipated wanting a lot of storage, but I think it's fair to say that flash drives are mainstream as one of the options for such devices. I don't see much evidence of them taking hold in the server market, but the UMPC market has been a resounding success and I reckon will spur further developments in 2009. I'll give myself 9/10 for this prediction.
3. Many more computer devices will come with GNU/Linux pre-installed
Well I think this was also a good prediction, largely for the same reason as prediction number 2. It's also clear that Microsoft see this as a real threat, and seem to have been fighting hard to prevent Linux completely taking over this market sector. They have just announced another life extension to Windows XP, as Vista is totally incapable of running on these devices as it's such a resource hog. That to me is a sign that they see and understand the threat. I'll give myself an 8/10 for this one. There have been moves in the desktop sector as well, but perhaps not as much as I would have thought.
4. Internet video will become usable
Bingo! The BBC have just rolled out a beta version of a new iPlayer which is cross-platform and allows for downloads. I have tried this out on my home PC which runs Ubuntu 8.10 and it really does just do what I expect. I did a comparison of the quality and it seemed to be a lot better than the streaming service, even with that set on high quality. It's worth pointing out that there was no high quality streaming service this time last year, so even this is new. Youtube.com have also made a high quality service available, although I haven't actually seen any content using it yet. The only area that is still lacking is video-conferencing, using services such as skype or the instant messaging-based services. This will always be limited by the uplink connections speeds provided by ISPs that are currently available. There are some services available with higher uplink speeds (including interestingly the mobile broadband offerings based on the 3G HSPA technologies) but I don't expect services to take advantage of this until there is significant uptake of connections capable of providing these speeds. I'll give myself 9/10 for this prediction.
5. Many people will become concerned about Google's near monopoly on information retrieval and search.
An interesting comment I heard was that Google have now got a near monopoly on information retrieval and search, yet for some odd reason most people aren't concerned about this. I think there's some truth in this. The fact remains that Google tries very hard to avoid alienating its customers as it knows full well it doesn't want to stir up such worries. When there was an outcry over the original terms of use for it's new Chrome web browser, it backed down and addressed the concerns by publishing updated terms. Outcry successfully stamped out. I suspect it will continue with this approach and do everything to avoid being seen as the new Microsoft. Perhaps I can only give myself 3/10 for this one, as although Google's plans to take over the internet have advanced significantly, my prediction was mainly about people becoming concerned about it.
So what for 2009? Here are my predicitions.
1. There will be a second generation of UMPCs, based around ARM processors for extreme low power. Many of them will run GNU/Linux.
The UMPC concept is a good one and has worked well. There are also many smart phones which offer internet connectivity via HSPA and wifi. The next generation will have the form-factor of the current UMPCs but will be internally more like the smart phone and not at all like a PC. They will be 'always on' like a phone, when you shut the lid it will only turn off the display and go into a low power mode (rather than hibernating where a PC can't really respond to external events). They will have UMTS modems and therefore be like a phone; they will behave like a normal mobile phone by connecting to a Bluetooth headset. Battery life will be upwards of 24 hours (at least if on standby). You will carry it in your handbag/rucksack/coat pocket and the Bluetooth headset will be what you keep on your person at all times instead of a traditional mobile phone. As a result, Bluetooth headsets will gain new features such as a display for caller ID, basic menus and eventually the ability to type instant messages/emails (the latter won't happen in 2009 though).
2. Hybrid cars will take off in the market.
This is based on a number of things - firstly the spike in energy prices in 2008 has raised the issue of cost in people's minds, so they are looking for efficiency improvements. Secondly, Formula 1 motor racing have new rules which include KERS devices - which stands for Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems. Thirdly - motor manufacturers are struggling because of the recession. While the motor industry are just one of a number of industries queueing up to be bailed out by public finances, I don't believe they are a worthy recipient of this - unless, that is, such a bailout is conditional on them investing the funds of such a bailout in technology fit for the 21st century. Smart governments will insist on this. It's unclear whether Barak Obama will do this in the USA, nor whether European and Asian governments will. However there are a number of technologies available which could facilitate this. Batteries have their drawbacks, but other technologies capable of storing much smaller amounts of energy can contribute almost as much to efficiency savings without many of the drawbacks. Expect to see the developments in Formula 1 spilling over into the mass market. Maybe 2009 is a bit premature for this, but the technology would be ideal for roll-out in specific applications such as buses, trains, and even small city cars. Current electric cars such as the G-Wizz have limited appeal and some drawbacks, but the inclusion of a small internal combustion engine overcomes most of these. Whilst it would be good to see the internal combustion engine go the way of the dodo in cars, the alternative technologies need to gain critical mass first and a number of hybrid technologies will enable this.
3. 2009 will see many more 'household names' going bust because of the recession.
OK, this isn't exactly a spectacular prediction given the current economic climate. But I expect we'll be in for a lot of surprises. Who knows, it may even be whole nations - the USA? UK? If confidence in the US dollar falls and all those people around the world who have lent money to the US by buying dollars decide to pull out, there could be a spectacular fall in the dollar. This would have massive ramifications around the world, and could even trigger my fourth prediction:
4. The UK will be forced to abolish the pound and will join the Euro
This is perhaps a bit more far fetched, but not totally inconceivable. It would only take a scandal on a large scale to hit the UK, its companies or its institutions and confidence could fall out of the pound totally. The recent Bernard Madoff scandal has had big effects but the US economy is big enough to be able to cope. A similar scandal in the UK, especially one which exposed weaknesses in the regulatory environment of the UK, could cause the UK economy to spiral downwards, taking the pound with it, and forcing us to adopt the euro. Personally, I reckon we'd be better to pre-empt this by adopting the euro at a time of our choosing on terms more favourable to ourselves, but that's another story.
5. Can't think of a fifth right now, but will update if/when I do.
14 February 2008
Free Culture, The Law and The Corporations - Part I
I have recently downloaded the book "Free Culture" by Lawrence Lessig (you can download it for free here) and am part way through reading it. As those of you reading previous blog entries will know I am a big fan of Free Software, but more recently my interest has spread to other areas of society where the "Free versus non-free" argument is equally applicable. I suppose one of the reasons for this is that whilst those within my circle who are software developers stand a chance of understanding the issues easily, for those who are not it is an extremely academic, niche area. However the same issues crop up time and time again in areas such as books, journalism, film, music, art, TV and so forth. These are areas which a far wider section of society are able to relate to, and even have a vested interest in how the cultural environment develops in the face of changing technology.
As most of you will know there is a 'system' on the internet known as bittorrent (on account of my internet service provider (ISP)'s backward policy, I often refer to it as 'bittrickle', but that's an aside at this point). This is essentially a protocol to enable download of files, in the same way that the HyperText Transfer Protocol, or HTTP is a protocol. Whereas HTTP is designed for web pages and works extremely well with small files (HTML documents primarily, but it can be used with any type of file), bittorrent is much better suited for larger files as it inherently supports suspending and resuming of downloading. It also (and this is the whole point of it) enables people to make a file available to the masses without having to spend a vast amount of money providing download bandwidth, as different users upload portions of the file to each other - hence the term peer-to-peer, or P2P. This is important, as it enables smaller players without huge financial resources to produce content and make it widely available.
Lets just state at this point that despite my ISP's backward policy, I have used this to download software, music and videos and it's a wonderful system. Most of the GNU/Linux distributions I have tried are available as installation CD images, for which bittorrent is an ideal download method. There is a great documentary film called Steal This Film II (there is also a version I) about the issues I am talking about here which is only available via bittorrent - it's a large DVD image so again bittorrent is ideally suited to this. For music, sites such as Jamendo allow musicians to make their music available for free download via bittorrent. I have become familiar with a number of great musicians through this site, most of whom I would otherwise probably not have heard of. I also use the Miro video player to download and play content from video channels. If your idea of online video is limited to youtube, I strongly recommend you try this - you subscribe to channels, it uses bittorrent as one of it's download methods (depending on the channel). Some of the channels are High Definition so the quality can be excellent. Due to the potentially large files it downloads, it does this all in the background whilst letting you get on and watch those you have already downloaded.
So what's the point of all this? Let's just say that there are forces which are trying very hard to make it illegal, or impractical, to use bittorrent. I have already mentioned my ISP which restricts the download rate to a trickle. The main forces behind this though are those who traditionally sell CDs, DVDs and the like. In short, they see the availability of free content as a threat to their business model (which indeed it is). However they won't tell you this is the reason they want to shut it down, because that would be seen as anticompetitive - they will tell you it's all about copyright infringement (also known colloquially as "piracy"). I will reserve my comments on this for my next posting, where I will discuss The Pirate Bay and it's legal struggles against the aforementioned forces, represented largely by the IFPI, or International Federation of the Phonographic Industry.
As most of you will know there is a 'system' on the internet known as bittorrent (on account of my internet service provider (ISP)'s backward policy, I often refer to it as 'bittrickle', but that's an aside at this point). This is essentially a protocol to enable download of files, in the same way that the HyperText Transfer Protocol, or HTTP is a protocol. Whereas HTTP is designed for web pages and works extremely well with small files (HTML documents primarily, but it can be used with any type of file), bittorrent is much better suited for larger files as it inherently supports suspending and resuming of downloading. It also (and this is the whole point of it) enables people to make a file available to the masses without having to spend a vast amount of money providing download bandwidth, as different users upload portions of the file to each other - hence the term peer-to-peer, or P2P. This is important, as it enables smaller players without huge financial resources to produce content and make it widely available.
Lets just state at this point that despite my ISP's backward policy, I have used this to download software, music and videos and it's a wonderful system. Most of the GNU/Linux distributions I have tried are available as installation CD images, for which bittorrent is an ideal download method. There is a great documentary film called Steal This Film II (there is also a version I) about the issues I am talking about here which is only available via bittorrent - it's a large DVD image so again bittorrent is ideally suited to this. For music, sites such as Jamendo allow musicians to make their music available for free download via bittorrent. I have become familiar with a number of great musicians through this site, most of whom I would otherwise probably not have heard of. I also use the Miro video player to download and play content from video channels. If your idea of online video is limited to youtube, I strongly recommend you try this - you subscribe to channels, it uses bittorrent as one of it's download methods (depending on the channel). Some of the channels are High Definition so the quality can be excellent. Due to the potentially large files it downloads, it does this all in the background whilst letting you get on and watch those you have already downloaded.
So what's the point of all this? Let's just say that there are forces which are trying very hard to make it illegal, or impractical, to use bittorrent. I have already mentioned my ISP which restricts the download rate to a trickle. The main forces behind this though are those who traditionally sell CDs, DVDs and the like. In short, they see the availability of free content as a threat to their business model (which indeed it is). However they won't tell you this is the reason they want to shut it down, because that would be seen as anticompetitive - they will tell you it's all about copyright infringement (also known colloquially as "piracy"). I will reserve my comments on this for my next posting, where I will discuss The Pirate Bay and it's legal struggles against the aforementioned forces, represented largely by the IFPI, or International Federation of the Phonographic Industry.
28 December 2007
Openstreetmap.org
I've spent the best part of today with a friend walking the streets of my village holding a GPS, then using the trace to add the missing streets on openstreetmap.org. I have to say that although it took a bit of getting used to how to enter the data, it's actually very easy once you get to grips with it. There are more sophisticated ways of adding/editing data available but I was just using the flash-based editor that works within a suitable browser, such as firefox. My own street now appears, and some others are at the time of writing sitting in a render queue and should appear in the next couple of hours. This is just a small step towards keeping high-quality information available for all to download/use as they see fit.
However it's clear that while larger cities are fairly well covered in openstreetmap.org, small villages often have only through-routes on them, so there is a lot of work still to do. I also notice that many roads are shown but which still required labels (such as a name!), even in the cities. It's actually very easy to edit the information so I would encourage people to head on over, create an account and update any omissions/errors in their area. Adding information such as street names requires nothing other than local knowledge, whereas adding roads really requires walking them with a suitable GPS device to get an accurate track. If you're walking down the middle of the road to get an accurate track you might get funny looks from people (especially motorised tin-box occupants), I now wish I had worn my yellow high-visibility jacket and just said that I was 'surveying', rather than try to explain things to people!
Just think - if even only 10% of people add just one street (such as the one they live on), we'd have the whole world covered pretty accurately. I'll try and find the time to seek out places in need of further details and walk/cycle them, it's a good excuse to get out and get some gentle excercise, then share its virtues with the rest of the world!
However it's clear that while larger cities are fairly well covered in openstreetmap.org, small villages often have only through-routes on them, so there is a lot of work still to do. I also notice that many roads are shown but which still required labels (such as a name!), even in the cities. It's actually very easy to edit the information so I would encourage people to head on over, create an account and update any omissions/errors in their area. Adding information such as street names requires nothing other than local knowledge, whereas adding roads really requires walking them with a suitable GPS device to get an accurate track. If you're walking down the middle of the road to get an accurate track you might get funny looks from people (especially motorised tin-box occupants), I now wish I had worn my yellow high-visibility jacket and just said that I was 'surveying', rather than try to explain things to people!
Just think - if even only 10% of people add just one street (such as the one they live on), we'd have the whole world covered pretty accurately. I'll try and find the time to seek out places in need of further details and walk/cycle them, it's a good excuse to get out and get some gentle excercise, then share its virtues with the rest of the world!
27 December 2007
A technology preview of 2008
OK, it's ages since I've blogged. This is largely because I've found I have very little spare time to think about stuff, but as I've got a few days off I thought it was time I wrote another entry.
Firstly, a look back at 2007. For me personally it has been a very eventful year. Back in March, Nicolas Edward made his first appearance in the world, and he has been an absolute joy to be with, one of the most chilled out people of his age that I've met. Now that he's 9.5 months old he's into absolutely everything, holding on to furniture and standing up (but not sitting back down again, except by accident!) and putting everything you can think of into his mouth (including the muddy wheels of his pushchair!). He's also noticeably copying actions, for example clapping his hands together and hitting the floor (he's still working on patting his head with one hand while simultaneously rubbing his tummy). The other big event is that I gave up on Motorola this year and am now working for Airvana doing 3G femto-basestations. This has turned out to be a good move, as I'm in a relatively politics-free environment now and able to actually concentrate on the technology - and a lot of new technology there is for me get to grips with! I've now got hands-on experience of embedded Linux development, learnt about SMTP and learnt about some of the more esoteric aspects of the 3GPP standards. We use Debian as our desktop operating system and for development, and it works great.
So, onto my technology predictions for 2008.
1. LED lighting will become mainstream (See Here).
OK 2007 saw some big advances in LED lighting technology to the point that there are now LED-based spotlights available on the market, however these are currently very expensive and not bright enough for general use (but if the figures given are to be believed, they are efficient). I predict that 2008 will bring further improvements so that much brighter models will be available in a year's time. LED Christmas tree lights have gone mainstream this year (as any unfortunate souls trying to buy them will have discovered, the shops are full of legacy incandescent versions while LED ones have sold out). Expect to see LED spotlights bright enough to replace halogen spots available in 2008, although probably at a significant price premium. Also, expect many governments annouce the banning of incandescent lights from sale in the next couple of years, as a means of boosting the environmental point scoring of their party. Um, I mean as a means of reducing the carbon footprint of their nations.
2. Flash-based hard drives will become mainstream
We have already seen, there are a small number of these devices available already (e.g. from here) but they are currently very expensive. However their advantages over mechanical rotating disks make them very compelling for both server and laptop use. They consume a lot less power and are silent, and they are also mechanically robust. I expect within a couple of years the majority of laptops will come with flash-based drives just because they can contribute to a much improved battery life. They also seem to have higher performance than rotating disks, making them suitable for server use, and this is something that is only likely to improve. A rotating disk is limited by the speed at which it can rotate and at which the head can move to the correct position for reading, but a flash device has no such limitation. Simply by reading separate chips in parallel it's possible to increase the access speed immensely. Also, I expect to see architectural changes to computers to remove the ATA interface and the bottleneck that it represents - this is really a form of legacy bus support but which will seem increasingly irrelevant with flash drives.
3. Many more computer devices will come with GNU/Linux pre-installed
This year we have seen the One Laptop Per Child project and the Asus EEE PC, both designed with a Linux-based operating system. We have also seen Dell start shipping PCs with Ubuntu installed. I predict more and more devices to be designed specifically for Linux. Microsoft have done an excellent job of promoting Linux by releasing Vista, which is almost universally agreed to be a slow resource hog that adds nothing useful to the user. Now that people realise that there are multiple alternatives that just work so much better, expect to see many more systems (especially low cost systems) designed specifically to run with various flavours of Linux.
4. Internet video will become usable
Video over internet has been touted for a while as being the next big thing. However, people point to youtube.com as an example of this. The typical youtube experience is of watching poor quality video through a postcard-sized box on a very large display. Not exactly appealing. Also, for the majority of operating systems it won't work out of the box as it requires the proprietary flash player.
For an alternative approach, have a look at the Miro project. This is a recent discovery for me, and it is a real revelation. I can subscribe to 'channels' which download videos in the background and provide me a list of already downloaded videos that I can watch. Many of the channels provide content in HD format (which is more than I can watch on my "HD-Ready" TV currently). There are channels available from all over the world, although I would say that the system needs more videos from countries other than the USA to be a really useful general-purpose entertainment platform.
There is just one thing remaining - the widespread adoption of free, open standards for video such as Ogg Theora or Dirac for video distribution. Only when this happens will everyone, worldwide, be able to have an "out of the box" experience without having to download additional software to support it.
5. Many people will become concerned about Google's near monopoly on information retrieval and search
Well, this is something I am beginning to become concerned about. In the software world there is a sufficiently large selection of freely available software to cover virtually every possible use. However, the same cannot be said for information content. Although the Wikipedia project aiming to make a freely available online encyclopedia is well-known and very successful, similar projects to cover mapping (such as Open Street Map), earth imaging (Marble) and general information search just aren't as high profile as similar (proprietary) products provided by Google. Google's success is based on providing good products at zero cost to the user, but the information upon which they have built this remains firmly in the hands of Google and is not freely available for others to use as they like.
Firstly, a look back at 2007. For me personally it has been a very eventful year. Back in March, Nicolas Edward made his first appearance in the world, and he has been an absolute joy to be with, one of the most chilled out people of his age that I've met. Now that he's 9.5 months old he's into absolutely everything, holding on to furniture and standing up (but not sitting back down again, except by accident!) and putting everything you can think of into his mouth (including the muddy wheels of his pushchair!). He's also noticeably copying actions, for example clapping his hands together and hitting the floor (he's still working on patting his head with one hand while simultaneously rubbing his tummy). The other big event is that I gave up on Motorola this year and am now working for Airvana doing 3G femto-basestations. This has turned out to be a good move, as I'm in a relatively politics-free environment now and able to actually concentrate on the technology - and a lot of new technology there is for me get to grips with! I've now got hands-on experience of embedded Linux development, learnt about SMTP and learnt about some of the more esoteric aspects of the 3GPP standards. We use Debian as our desktop operating system and for development, and it works great.
So, onto my technology predictions for 2008.
1. LED lighting will become mainstream (See Here).
OK 2007 saw some big advances in LED lighting technology to the point that there are now LED-based spotlights available on the market, however these are currently very expensive and not bright enough for general use (but if the figures given are to be believed, they are efficient). I predict that 2008 will bring further improvements so that much brighter models will be available in a year's time. LED Christmas tree lights have gone mainstream this year (as any unfortunate souls trying to buy them will have discovered, the shops are full of legacy incandescent versions while LED ones have sold out). Expect to see LED spotlights bright enough to replace halogen spots available in 2008, although probably at a significant price premium. Also, expect many governments annouce the banning of incandescent lights from sale in the next couple of years, as a means of boosting the environmental point scoring of their party. Um, I mean as a means of reducing the carbon footprint of their nations.
2. Flash-based hard drives will become mainstream
We have already seen, there are a small number of these devices available already (e.g. from here) but they are currently very expensive. However their advantages over mechanical rotating disks make them very compelling for both server and laptop use. They consume a lot less power and are silent, and they are also mechanically robust. I expect within a couple of years the majority of laptops will come with flash-based drives just because they can contribute to a much improved battery life. They also seem to have higher performance than rotating disks, making them suitable for server use, and this is something that is only likely to improve. A rotating disk is limited by the speed at which it can rotate and at which the head can move to the correct position for reading, but a flash device has no such limitation. Simply by reading separate chips in parallel it's possible to increase the access speed immensely. Also, I expect to see architectural changes to computers to remove the ATA interface and the bottleneck that it represents - this is really a form of legacy bus support but which will seem increasingly irrelevant with flash drives.
3. Many more computer devices will come with GNU/Linux pre-installed
This year we have seen the One Laptop Per Child project and the Asus EEE PC, both designed with a Linux-based operating system. We have also seen Dell start shipping PCs with Ubuntu installed. I predict more and more devices to be designed specifically for Linux. Microsoft have done an excellent job of promoting Linux by releasing Vista, which is almost universally agreed to be a slow resource hog that adds nothing useful to the user. Now that people realise that there are multiple alternatives that just work so much better, expect to see many more systems (especially low cost systems) designed specifically to run with various flavours of Linux.
4. Internet video will become usable
Video over internet has been touted for a while as being the next big thing. However, people point to youtube.com as an example of this. The typical youtube experience is of watching poor quality video through a postcard-sized box on a very large display. Not exactly appealing. Also, for the majority of operating systems it won't work out of the box as it requires the proprietary flash player.
For an alternative approach, have a look at the Miro project. This is a recent discovery for me, and it is a real revelation. I can subscribe to 'channels' which download videos in the background and provide me a list of already downloaded videos that I can watch. Many of the channels provide content in HD format (which is more than I can watch on my "HD-Ready" TV currently). There are channels available from all over the world, although I would say that the system needs more videos from countries other than the USA to be a really useful general-purpose entertainment platform.
There is just one thing remaining - the widespread adoption of free, open standards for video such as Ogg Theora or Dirac for video distribution. Only when this happens will everyone, worldwide, be able to have an "out of the box" experience without having to download additional software to support it.
5. Many people will become concerned about Google's near monopoly on information retrieval and search
Well, this is something I am beginning to become concerned about. In the software world there is a sufficiently large selection of freely available software to cover virtually every possible use. However, the same cannot be said for information content. Although the Wikipedia project aiming to make a freely available online encyclopedia is well-known and very successful, similar projects to cover mapping (such as Open Street Map), earth imaging (Marble) and general information search just aren't as high profile as similar (proprietary) products provided by Google. Google's success is based on providing good products at zero cost to the user, but the information upon which they have built this remains firmly in the hands of Google and is not freely available for others to use as they like.
04 September 2007
I Crashed My Fighter Jet Near My House
For those of you who are familiar with Google Earth, they have just released an upgrade which includes a flight simulator. Now I'm not really into flight simulators normally, but this just caught my attention and I had to have a go. The first time I set off from the default location (Kathmandu) and had a cruise around the Himalayas while I tried to get used to the controls. It was a bit difficult at first but after a while I began to get the hang of it. After crashing a couple of times I decided to try somewhere a bit closer to home. The nearest airport you can take off from is London Heathrow, so I tried this and made a few passes over central London.
Now this isn't really a fully-featured flight simulator with full integration into Google Earth, although it does download the real image data and present it as the terrain beneath you (or above you if you happen to fly upside-down). What I found was that once you are airborne there is no way to go back to the normal map mode (at least which I could find), so if you end up getting lost then you're on your own. However with my knowledge of the South-East of England being fairly good as well as my familiarity of the colours of different parts of the region as seen in Google Earth, I decided to see if I could fly over to my house just north of Cambridge. Actually, whilst on route I decided as a measure of my flying skill to see if I could crash into my house! Now the one good thing is that when you leave the flight simulator (either because you have crashed or got bored, or presumably landed safely although I haven't yet tested this option) it leaves you in the normal mode looking at the earth in the position you were in when you left the simulator. So by doing this it's possible to see exactly where you are.
Now I'm going to brag about my flying skills - when I figured out where I had landed, it was bang in the middle of Cottenham, probably about 200 yards from my house as the crow flies. Not bad for a first attempt!
I haven't yet ceased to be amazed by the Google Earth software, it just keeps getting better and better and the new features keep blowing me away. OK, flight simulators aren't particularly new and this isn't a particularly amazing one, but the fact that it's integrated into the software is great in itself, but I wonder where this will end up if taken to its logical conclusion. Presumably future functionality might include recording your flight, with the ability to stop and look at the places over which you fly. Integrated photo albums might be available, as well as wikipedia-type entries about the locations. A wider range of aircraft might become available (there are only two at present), and maybe one day you'll be able to fly to the moon, or Mars (both of which are navigable in Google Maps style Here and Here respectively, although not currently in a format like Google Earth). You can now view the night sky in Google Earth but not while flying, as it only seems to support daytime mode at the moment - it would be good to add real-time day/night data for an extra challenge. What about seeing the Aurora Borealis or Aurora Australis from the air? Or circumnavigating the world in a hot-air balloon, with real air-speed data estimates dictating your path? What about super-imposing other weather data to make your rumble-pack rumble when you hit a patch of turbulence? Or to travel in yet-to-be-invented vehicles such as a flying car (refuelling stops obligatory of course) which would allow you to pass through tunnels and under bridges. In short, it could become a whole virtual world but which doesn't have the same limitations as the real one.
I for one hope that Google Earth continues to be enhanced with some of these ideas and others - it really is a remarkable concept, made possible only by the widespread availability of cheap computers and broadband connections.
Now this isn't really a fully-featured flight simulator with full integration into Google Earth, although it does download the real image data and present it as the terrain beneath you (or above you if you happen to fly upside-down). What I found was that once you are airborne there is no way to go back to the normal map mode (at least which I could find), so if you end up getting lost then you're on your own. However with my knowledge of the South-East of England being fairly good as well as my familiarity of the colours of different parts of the region as seen in Google Earth, I decided to see if I could fly over to my house just north of Cambridge. Actually, whilst on route I decided as a measure of my flying skill to see if I could crash into my house! Now the one good thing is that when you leave the flight simulator (either because you have crashed or got bored, or presumably landed safely although I haven't yet tested this option) it leaves you in the normal mode looking at the earth in the position you were in when you left the simulator. So by doing this it's possible to see exactly where you are.
Now I'm going to brag about my flying skills - when I figured out where I had landed, it was bang in the middle of Cottenham, probably about 200 yards from my house as the crow flies. Not bad for a first attempt!
I haven't yet ceased to be amazed by the Google Earth software, it just keeps getting better and better and the new features keep blowing me away. OK, flight simulators aren't particularly new and this isn't a particularly amazing one, but the fact that it's integrated into the software is great in itself, but I wonder where this will end up if taken to its logical conclusion. Presumably future functionality might include recording your flight, with the ability to stop and look at the places over which you fly. Integrated photo albums might be available, as well as wikipedia-type entries about the locations. A wider range of aircraft might become available (there are only two at present), and maybe one day you'll be able to fly to the moon, or Mars (both of which are navigable in Google Maps style Here and Here respectively, although not currently in a format like Google Earth). You can now view the night sky in Google Earth but not while flying, as it only seems to support daytime mode at the moment - it would be good to add real-time day/night data for an extra challenge. What about seeing the Aurora Borealis or Aurora Australis from the air? Or circumnavigating the world in a hot-air balloon, with real air-speed data estimates dictating your path? What about super-imposing other weather data to make your rumble-pack rumble when you hit a patch of turbulence? Or to travel in yet-to-be-invented vehicles such as a flying car (refuelling stops obligatory of course) which would allow you to pass through tunnels and under bridges. In short, it could become a whole virtual world but which doesn't have the same limitations as the real one.
I for one hope that Google Earth continues to be enhanced with some of these ideas and others - it really is a remarkable concept, made possible only by the widespread availability of cheap computers and broadband connections.
03 August 2007
One Laptop Per Child - the most important development in computers for a decade?
The recent decision of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) project to go into full production for the first time marks a watershed in computer usage in the home. For the best part of two decades, home computers have been dominated by one company - Microsoft - and although many incremental improvements have happened during that time there hasn't really been a seismic shift in the approach to computers since the rise of the internet. I believe that the OLPC project, if it succeeds in its aims, will mark a new era of computer use. Let me outline the reasons why I believe this is the case.
1. It brings computers to a completely new section of society
The intended recipients of the OLPC are schoolchildren, mainly from poor nations, most of whom will never have had the opportunity to use a computer before. Most of these will benefit greatly from their exposure to modern technology and what it has to offer in terms of communication, learning and an ability to see what's happening in the wider world. A small proportion of these children will grow up to have successful careers in computing and related technologies, which as well as empowering these individuals is likely to invigorate the economies in which they operate. This simply would not be possible if they never had the opportunity to learn in this way. A much larger proportion will be empowered to go on to careers where computers are an essential tool of the job rather than an end in itself - virtually all office-based jobs involve computers, and nearly every company can benefit from crucial functions (accounting, stock-keeping etc.) being computerised. Whilst these functions already exist, the OLPC project provides a means of bringing these skills to people who otherwise would not have this opportunity.
2. It brings a new, fresh approach to the desktop
The desktop paradigm has changed very little on the last 10 years. People are familiar with icons representing files or applications and possibly 'folders' (directories) but the approach of the Sugar interface used by OLPC is more human-orientated - icons represent other individuals in the user's sphere of acquaintance who are online. The tools it provides are geared very much towards learning, so for example many applications have a "View Source" capability to facilitate this. The 'source' might be the source code for an application or it might be the raw HTML of a web page for example, but it encourages children to look beneath the surface and investigate. Many of these children will develop their own enhancements for their own purposes, and share these with their neighbours.
3. The hardware design spec is radically different from the current 'norm'
For as long as I have been on this planet (and even before), Moore's law has held true. There has been an incessant push for hardware to become more and more powerful which shows no sign of abating (although it's clear that the method by which this is accomplished is changing now that multi-core processors are the norm). This has led to a large number of benefits for users. However computers have stayed resolutely in the office, or at least with laptops in a clean, dry environment where mains electricity is available. The OLPC breaks away from this totally - it is designed to be rugged and used where mains electricity might not be available or at least not in every home. The display has been specially developed to be usable in full sunlight, an important consideration for children who receive their schooling in the open air. The focus is on power saving and maximising battery life - a simple processor is more than powerful enough to run desktop applications.
4. It will mark the introduction of mesh networking to the mass market.
Mesh networking is not a completely new technology, but in the wealthy parts of the world the wide availability of broadband internet at affordable prices means that there just isn't a huge requirement for using it. However in rural locations in developing nations this is not the case. The ability for a single internet connection to be shared among potentially hundreds of users makes the difference between having and not having access to the internet, and all the services and benefits that come with it. Mesh networking enables the reach of the internet to be massively increased without the need for a large amount of expensive infrastructure to be installed. It may not represent a totally reliable, always available internet at any particular location but this is less important as the children will still be able to research and communicate at least some of the time. Their eyes will therefore be opened to the wider world.
5. By increasing production volumes of lower-end components, it will bring the entry-level cost down thus reducing the barriers to adoption of home computers around the world.
By reaching to a sector of the market that is, frankly, huge - economies of scale should mean that the cost comes down. The aim is for the laptop to have a bill of materials of less that USD100. Currently it is more expensive than this but over time it's realistic to expect this to come down. However this will also have knock-on effects for other products aimed at different markets. Ultimately, every market sector should benefit from this.
6. It actively promotes open learning.
OLPC is built upon a version of Red Hat's GNU/Linux distribution, which can be freely downloaded by anyone and shared out. The fact that every part of it is Free Software is vitally important here - no one company can lock in the users to their products (in the way that Microsoft has done very succesfully, albeit illegally, with Windows and related products). Red Hat is just one of a large number of organisations developing GNU/Linux-based offerings. However due to the innovative licensing of these products, enhancements developed by one organisation can be used by any other organisation. The net result is a bit like a mutually beneficial cooperative. My personal favourite GNU/Linux distribution is Kubuntu (a version of Ubuntu using the KDE desktop rather than Gnome which is standard in the default ubuntu). However the vast majority of the software is common between Ubuntu and Red Hat (and indeed other distributions). Each distribution takes what it believes to be the best applications, makes them even better then makes money by providing support services. Expect to see other distributions using variants of the Sugar interface - although it was developed specifically for OLPC, other projects can tweak and optimise it for other, different markets. That's a win-win situation, both for the consumer and for the individual developers. Some of the enhancements made by others will be adopted by the OLPC project itself in future versions.
1. It brings computers to a completely new section of society
The intended recipients of the OLPC are schoolchildren, mainly from poor nations, most of whom will never have had the opportunity to use a computer before. Most of these will benefit greatly from their exposure to modern technology and what it has to offer in terms of communication, learning and an ability to see what's happening in the wider world. A small proportion of these children will grow up to have successful careers in computing and related technologies, which as well as empowering these individuals is likely to invigorate the economies in which they operate. This simply would not be possible if they never had the opportunity to learn in this way. A much larger proportion will be empowered to go on to careers where computers are an essential tool of the job rather than an end in itself - virtually all office-based jobs involve computers, and nearly every company can benefit from crucial functions (accounting, stock-keeping etc.) being computerised. Whilst these functions already exist, the OLPC project provides a means of bringing these skills to people who otherwise would not have this opportunity.
2. It brings a new, fresh approach to the desktop
The desktop paradigm has changed very little on the last 10 years. People are familiar with icons representing files or applications and possibly 'folders' (directories) but the approach of the Sugar interface used by OLPC is more human-orientated - icons represent other individuals in the user's sphere of acquaintance who are online. The tools it provides are geared very much towards learning, so for example many applications have a "View Source" capability to facilitate this. The 'source' might be the source code for an application or it might be the raw HTML of a web page for example, but it encourages children to look beneath the surface and investigate. Many of these children will develop their own enhancements for their own purposes, and share these with their neighbours.
3. The hardware design spec is radically different from the current 'norm'
For as long as I have been on this planet (and even before), Moore's law has held true. There has been an incessant push for hardware to become more and more powerful which shows no sign of abating (although it's clear that the method by which this is accomplished is changing now that multi-core processors are the norm). This has led to a large number of benefits for users. However computers have stayed resolutely in the office, or at least with laptops in a clean, dry environment where mains electricity is available. The OLPC breaks away from this totally - it is designed to be rugged and used where mains electricity might not be available or at least not in every home. The display has been specially developed to be usable in full sunlight, an important consideration for children who receive their schooling in the open air. The focus is on power saving and maximising battery life - a simple processor is more than powerful enough to run desktop applications.
4. It will mark the introduction of mesh networking to the mass market.
Mesh networking is not a completely new technology, but in the wealthy parts of the world the wide availability of broadband internet at affordable prices means that there just isn't a huge requirement for using it. However in rural locations in developing nations this is not the case. The ability for a single internet connection to be shared among potentially hundreds of users makes the difference between having and not having access to the internet, and all the services and benefits that come with it. Mesh networking enables the reach of the internet to be massively increased without the need for a large amount of expensive infrastructure to be installed. It may not represent a totally reliable, always available internet at any particular location but this is less important as the children will still be able to research and communicate at least some of the time. Their eyes will therefore be opened to the wider world.
5. By increasing production volumes of lower-end components, it will bring the entry-level cost down thus reducing the barriers to adoption of home computers around the world.
By reaching to a sector of the market that is, frankly, huge - economies of scale should mean that the cost comes down. The aim is for the laptop to have a bill of materials of less that USD100. Currently it is more expensive than this but over time it's realistic to expect this to come down. However this will also have knock-on effects for other products aimed at different markets. Ultimately, every market sector should benefit from this.
6. It actively promotes open learning.
OLPC is built upon a version of Red Hat's GNU/Linux distribution, which can be freely downloaded by anyone and shared out. The fact that every part of it is Free Software is vitally important here - no one company can lock in the users to their products (in the way that Microsoft has done very succesfully, albeit illegally, with Windows and related products). Red Hat is just one of a large number of organisations developing GNU/Linux-based offerings. However due to the innovative licensing of these products, enhancements developed by one organisation can be used by any other organisation. The net result is a bit like a mutually beneficial cooperative. My personal favourite GNU/Linux distribution is Kubuntu (a version of Ubuntu using the KDE desktop rather than Gnome which is standard in the default ubuntu). However the vast majority of the software is common between Ubuntu and Red Hat (and indeed other distributions). Each distribution takes what it believes to be the best applications, makes them even better then makes money by providing support services. Expect to see other distributions using variants of the Sugar interface - although it was developed specifically for OLPC, other projects can tweak and optimise it for other, different markets. That's a win-win situation, both for the consumer and for the individual developers. Some of the enhancements made by others will be adopted by the OLPC project itself in future versions.
24 May 2007
Home working - a boon to productivity?
As a general rule I work from home one day a week. There are a number of reasons for this:
(1) It saves me a significant amount of travel time
(2) It saves me the cost of a train ticket
(3) I can get on with work with few, if any, distractions
(4) The coffee is better
(5) I can take my daughter to school
In general terms, the time I save not having to travel to work is extra time I spend working. On top of this, having fewer distractions means that I am much more productive with my time, so it's a win-win scenario. There are of course some things that I really need to be in the office for - meetings of various types, and also to be available for people to come and discuss issues with me. This is all part and parcel of the job, but when I have a specific task to accomplish they can feel more like distractions than anything else.
However there are times when it doesn't go as smoothly as I'd like. This morning I logged into the internal network as usual and was able to pick up my email, but then it all went dead. I tested basic connectivity (I could surf the web, which proved that the local wireless link was working, the ADSL Router was successfully connected to the internet, DNS and local DHCP were working etc) so it was definitely a problem with the software for accessing the company's network. After trying various things I resorted to a telephone call to our support teams, who after going through all the basic networking possibilities (why is it they can't trust me when I say that the problem is neither with the Wifi nor the ADSL link?) recommended enabling a service then rebooting the PC. After this, it all came back to life.
So yet another cycle of having to close down all my applications, reboot the entire PC and then wait for ages for everything to start up again, followed by trying to figure out what I was doing previously. What is it with the mentality of 'reboot the PC' after making any changes? Anyone would think this is the way things should happen.
Still, at least I could drink the coffee that I had roasted myself last night while I was doing all of this. It all didn't seem quite as painful as a result...
(1) It saves me a significant amount of travel time
(2) It saves me the cost of a train ticket
(3) I can get on with work with few, if any, distractions
(4) The coffee is better
(5) I can take my daughter to school
In general terms, the time I save not having to travel to work is extra time I spend working. On top of this, having fewer distractions means that I am much more productive with my time, so it's a win-win scenario. There are of course some things that I really need to be in the office for - meetings of various types, and also to be available for people to come and discuss issues with me. This is all part and parcel of the job, but when I have a specific task to accomplish they can feel more like distractions than anything else.
However there are times when it doesn't go as smoothly as I'd like. This morning I logged into the internal network as usual and was able to pick up my email, but then it all went dead. I tested basic connectivity (I could surf the web, which proved that the local wireless link was working, the ADSL Router was successfully connected to the internet, DNS and local DHCP were working etc) so it was definitely a problem with the software for accessing the company's network. After trying various things I resorted to a telephone call to our support teams, who after going through all the basic networking possibilities (why is it they can't trust me when I say that the problem is neither with the Wifi nor the ADSL link?) recommended enabling a service then rebooting the PC. After this, it all came back to life.
So yet another cycle of having to close down all my applications, reboot the entire PC and then wait for ages for everything to start up again, followed by trying to figure out what I was doing previously. What is it with the mentality of 'reboot the PC' after making any changes? Anyone would think this is the way things should happen.
Still, at least I could drink the coffee that I had roasted myself last night while I was doing all of this. It all didn't seem quite as painful as a result...
20 May 2007
Proprietary vs Free software - an overview of the current state of the market.
As you will know, I am a big fan on GNU/Linux, and although I have tried a number of distributions in my time my current favourite is Kubuntu, as it combines an almost trivially easy installation and configuration process with the powerful KDE desktop environment. However, due to the requirements of my employers over the years it has to be said that I have spend significantly more time staring at a Microsoft Windows desktop than a Linux desktop. I'd like to outline my view of the current state of computer desktop operating systems, and make a few predictions for the future. I will not in this post consider server operating systems as the dynamics of the server market are quite different from the desktop.
The current situation, on the surface, looks much like it has done for the last 15 years. One company, Microsoft, has dominated the market almost to the total exclusion of all others. When people think about a computer, they think about Microsoft Windows. They expect to see a button labelled "Start" at the bottom left of the screen and small number of icons labelled "Internet", "My Computer" and so forth. The exact look and feel has changed a few times but the basic idea is the same. To the non-technical user any departure from this familiarity would represent a step into the unknown. I've not tried it, but I suspect if I were to move the taskbar to the left hand side (my current work PC is configured like this to make better use of the widescreen display) and ask an average user to use this, they would succeed but very slowly and uncomfortably. It represents a departure from what they are familiar with, although not such a huge departure that they couldn't figure it out and adapt. There are a core of Mac users who use a different operating system but the likelihood is that most of these will also be familiar with Microsoft Windows though friends, employers, internet cafès and the like. There is also a small technically savvy core of users who use other operating systems - mainly various GNU/Linux distributions, but the BSDs and Solaris probably also feature on this list.
However, I think we are seeing an accelerating sea-change. Until Microsoft Vista was released, there were essentially no changes to the user experience for the overwhelming majority of computer users since late 2001 - that's just over 5 years. At the start of this time, GNU/Linux really was just for the technically savvy or the curious. However over time, the ecosystem surrounding it has grown and the user experience has improved at what I can only describe as a phenomenal rate. Installation has become trivially easy, most distributions come with a sane set of defaults that require no configuration, the desktop environments (multiple) have improved in their usability and the range of high quality software to perform almost any task has increased immensely. Underneath, support for hardware has improved to the point where the vast majority of hardware 'just works'; this is as it should be, but in some cases that's not thanks to the efforts of the manufacturer of the hardware. My honest impression is that in late 2006, the GNU/Linux experience was far smoother than the Microsoft Windows experience for the vast majority of users, when comparing like for like.
So why hasn't everyone switched to GNU/Linux? The short answer is resistance to change, but conversations with Microsoft Windows users have revealed the following being given as reasons:
"Everyone else still uses Windows, so I don't want to be non-standard"
"Linux doesn't have any decent games"
"I can't use Microsoft Office on Linux"
"Last time I tried, my hardware wasn't supported"
"My customers want Windows so I'm sticking with it for the sake of my business"
"I use Dreamweaver|Adobe Acrobat|Photoshop which doens't run on Windows"
"The computer came with it, why should I change?"
Now let us fast forward a tiny bit to 2007 - Microsoft has released a long-awaited new operating system. And trying to identify what benefits it brings to the consumer is where I get writer's block. Improvements for Microsoft's ability to lock out competitors? Yes. A reason for people to bring more business to the hardware vendors? For sure. A "my new computer is shinier than your old one" feeling for some, definitely. A nice big kick-back from the entertainment industry to Microsoft for it's lock-down features aimed a preventing copyright infringement? No doubt. But for the user the only positive thing I can think of is a shiny new 3-D user interface, for those who have expensive enough hardware to support it. Now I'm going to be honest here - I've never actually seen Vista running, so I can only go by what I've read here but people say the 3-D interface is nice. But even such well-known companies as Dell have re-started shipping their PCs with XP instead as an option, and are about to start selling some of their range with Ubuntu pre-installed, at least in the US. Times are changing.
So here's a list of the bad things Vista brings the consumer that I've read about:
Lack of familiarity through a change of user-interface.
Reduced battery life on laptops
Difficulty burning CD-Roms
Won't run on anything but the newest, most expensive hardware
Attempts at locking out the user when using supposedly pirated multimedia end up locking her out when using any multimedia
Lack of compatibility with existing applications
An approach to security which is very annoying to the user
Lack of hardware compatibility
Expensive
So the simple question is that if people are going to have to upgrade from Windows XP, they are going to see a few changes anyway so they might as well switch to GNU/Linux instead and save a few hundred pounds/euros/dollars. Here is a list of what they will find:
Good battery life on laptops
Good hardware compatibility
Runs well on older hardware
A slight change of user interface, depending on chosen distribution/desktop environment
Doesn't attempt to lock out the user in any circumstances
Free (as in zero cost)
A security approach that works and isn't intrusive
A very good selection of applications, although for a few people their favourite application won't be supported.
So where does this mean things are likely to go in the future?
Well, there is another revolution taking place that could make the choice of operating system less relevant. That is the shift to online applications. The most advanced proponent of this is Google. Just take a look at some of the things that Google has done:
Google Earth - works on GNU/Linux as well as on Microsoft Windows. This has wasted many hours of my life.
Google Maps - works in (almost) any browser. The mapping code is even available for others to use in their websites, leading to some very cool uses. My favourites are flood.firetree.net which tells you which parts of the planet will be under water for a given rise in sea level, and fillthathole.org.uk for reporting road surface defects in the UK.
Google Docs and Spreadsheets - Write any Office-style text document or spreadsheet from within your browser, using the industry-standard Open Document Format (ODF).
Google Search - seems so far ahead of the competition and it is no surprise that this is a huge money-maker for Google. They are not the first to implement search by a long way but others tried to monetise it by adding intrusive adverts that annoyed the user.
Google Checkout - provides payment services for online retailers.
YouTube - recently bought by Google and rapidly making the old-style entertainment industries less relevant.
...and much more. Of course Google are the only company with some cool online services that aim to revolutionise the way the internet works. Many others have tried to move into this market, but for one reason or another have been less successful (Yahoo! anyone? Or even Microsoft?). But innovative websites such as Cannonical's Launchpad provides project management tools for Free Software projects of which Ubuntu (unsurprisingly) is the largest. These have a much smaller niche but are essentially following the same model of an online approach to a computing resource requirement.
So will Microsoft be able to fight back? In short, not if it continues to treat its customers like criminals to be fleeced for as much money as possible. It's been a very lucrative approach for them until now, but its days are clearly numbered unless it can develop in a completely new direction. No longer when it releases the latest and greatest of its wares do people think 'Wow', I must have that.
The current situation, on the surface, looks much like it has done for the last 15 years. One company, Microsoft, has dominated the market almost to the total exclusion of all others. When people think about a computer, they think about Microsoft Windows. They expect to see a button labelled "Start" at the bottom left of the screen and small number of icons labelled "Internet", "My Computer" and so forth. The exact look and feel has changed a few times but the basic idea is the same. To the non-technical user any departure from this familiarity would represent a step into the unknown. I've not tried it, but I suspect if I were to move the taskbar to the left hand side (my current work PC is configured like this to make better use of the widescreen display) and ask an average user to use this, they would succeed but very slowly and uncomfortably. It represents a departure from what they are familiar with, although not such a huge departure that they couldn't figure it out and adapt. There are a core of Mac users who use a different operating system but the likelihood is that most of these will also be familiar with Microsoft Windows though friends, employers, internet cafès and the like. There is also a small technically savvy core of users who use other operating systems - mainly various GNU/Linux distributions, but the BSDs and Solaris probably also feature on this list.
However, I think we are seeing an accelerating sea-change. Until Microsoft Vista was released, there were essentially no changes to the user experience for the overwhelming majority of computer users since late 2001 - that's just over 5 years. At the start of this time, GNU/Linux really was just for the technically savvy or the curious. However over time, the ecosystem surrounding it has grown and the user experience has improved at what I can only describe as a phenomenal rate. Installation has become trivially easy, most distributions come with a sane set of defaults that require no configuration, the desktop environments (multiple) have improved in their usability and the range of high quality software to perform almost any task has increased immensely. Underneath, support for hardware has improved to the point where the vast majority of hardware 'just works'; this is as it should be, but in some cases that's not thanks to the efforts of the manufacturer of the hardware. My honest impression is that in late 2006, the GNU/Linux experience was far smoother than the Microsoft Windows experience for the vast majority of users, when comparing like for like.
So why hasn't everyone switched to GNU/Linux? The short answer is resistance to change, but conversations with Microsoft Windows users have revealed the following being given as reasons:
"Everyone else still uses Windows, so I don't want to be non-standard"
"Linux doesn't have any decent games"
"I can't use Microsoft Office on Linux"
"Last time I tried, my hardware wasn't supported"
"My customers want Windows so I'm sticking with it for the sake of my business"
"I use Dreamweaver|Adobe Acrobat|Photoshop which doens't run on Windows"
"The computer came with it, why should I change?"
Now let us fast forward a tiny bit to 2007 - Microsoft has released a long-awaited new operating system. And trying to identify what benefits it brings to the consumer is where I get writer's block. Improvements for Microsoft's ability to lock out competitors? Yes. A reason for people to bring more business to the hardware vendors? For sure. A "my new computer is shinier than your old one" feeling for some, definitely. A nice big kick-back from the entertainment industry to Microsoft for it's lock-down features aimed a preventing copyright infringement? No doubt. But for the user the only positive thing I can think of is a shiny new 3-D user interface, for those who have expensive enough hardware to support it. Now I'm going to be honest here - I've never actually seen Vista running, so I can only go by what I've read here but people say the 3-D interface is nice. But even such well-known companies as Dell have re-started shipping their PCs with XP instead as an option, and are about to start selling some of their range with Ubuntu pre-installed, at least in the US. Times are changing.
So here's a list of the bad things Vista brings the consumer that I've read about:
Lack of familiarity through a change of user-interface.
Reduced battery life on laptops
Difficulty burning CD-Roms
Won't run on anything but the newest, most expensive hardware
Attempts at locking out the user when using supposedly pirated multimedia end up locking her out when using any multimedia
Lack of compatibility with existing applications
An approach to security which is very annoying to the user
Lack of hardware compatibility
Expensive
So the simple question is that if people are going to have to upgrade from Windows XP, they are going to see a few changes anyway so they might as well switch to GNU/Linux instead and save a few hundred pounds/euros/dollars. Here is a list of what they will find:
Good battery life on laptops
Good hardware compatibility
Runs well on older hardware
A slight change of user interface, depending on chosen distribution/desktop environment
Doesn't attempt to lock out the user in any circumstances
Free (as in zero cost)
A security approach that works and isn't intrusive
A very good selection of applications, although for a few people their favourite application won't be supported.
So where does this mean things are likely to go in the future?
Well, there is another revolution taking place that could make the choice of operating system less relevant. That is the shift to online applications. The most advanced proponent of this is Google. Just take a look at some of the things that Google has done:
Google Earth - works on GNU/Linux as well as on Microsoft Windows. This has wasted many hours of my life.
Google Maps - works in (almost) any browser. The mapping code is even available for others to use in their websites, leading to some very cool uses. My favourites are flood.firetree.net which tells you which parts of the planet will be under water for a given rise in sea level, and fillthathole.org.uk for reporting road surface defects in the UK.
Google Docs and Spreadsheets - Write any Office-style text document or spreadsheet from within your browser, using the industry-standard Open Document Format (ODF).
Google Search - seems so far ahead of the competition and it is no surprise that this is a huge money-maker for Google. They are not the first to implement search by a long way but others tried to monetise it by adding intrusive adverts that annoyed the user.
Google Checkout - provides payment services for online retailers.
YouTube - recently bought by Google and rapidly making the old-style entertainment industries less relevant.
...and much more. Of course Google are the only company with some cool online services that aim to revolutionise the way the internet works. Many others have tried to move into this market, but for one reason or another have been less successful (Yahoo! anyone? Or even Microsoft?). But innovative websites such as Cannonical's Launchpad provides project management tools for Free Software projects of which Ubuntu (unsurprisingly) is the largest. These have a much smaller niche but are essentially following the same model of an online approach to a computing resource requirement.
So will Microsoft be able to fight back? In short, not if it continues to treat its customers like criminals to be fleeced for as much money as possible. It's been a very lucrative approach for them until now, but its days are clearly numbered unless it can develop in a completely new direction. No longer when it releases the latest and greatest of its wares do people think 'Wow', I must have that.
04 May 2007
02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
The title of this post is a hexademical number. It is not a controversial number in any sense, but adding a few more digits at the start would turn it into a controversial number. So my question to you is, is my publishing of this number in any way illegal? No, because the controversy only exists in another jurisdiction, other that the one I reside in. It's perfectly possible that the hoster of this blog site may be required to remove this post because they do reside in such a jurisdiction, but that's not my problem. Let me explain.
In the USA there is a piece of legislation called the DMCA (google for it if you've not heard of it). Among it's provisions, residents of the USA are prohibited from distributing anything that " is (or is a component of) a circumvention technology". This is part of a hexadecimal key, now revoked, that can be used in decrypting HD-DVD discs. Using this key and appropriate software, I can decrypt, and therefore watch, any HD-DVD disc that uses this key. If I were resident in the USA, then I would be in breach of this law.
In fact, I'm about to blatantly break that law again: 0.
My challenge to the MPAA's lawyers is to argue that, if I were resident in the USA, this publication is illegal. If they fail in that, then they surely have no argument that publication of the whole key (just another number) is illegal?
0 is a part of the key too, and if you do a search on google for "09-F9" (yet another hexadecimal number) you can find out a bit more about this.
Note that I have been very careful in this posting not to reveal the real value of this hexadecimal number, as even if you put the various parts I've hinted at together, you don't have the whole picture. I will leave it to the readers to do their own research if they wish to find the whole number.
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